【中國MBA教育網(wǎng)訊】今天，我們面臨一場截然不同的危機(jī)。Coivd-19以閃電般的速度和我們記憶中從未見過的規(guī)模擾亂了我們的社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序。病毒正在造成悲慘的生命損失，對抗病毒所需的封鎖也影響了數(shù)十億民眾。我們必須凝聚所有人的決心——個人、政府、企業(yè)、社區(qū)領(lǐng)袖、國際組織等——果斷地共同采取行動，保護(hù)人類生命和生計(jì)?；鸾M織正是為這樣的時刻所建立的——我們的宗旨是動用全球社會的力量，以幫助保護(hù)最脆弱的群體并重振經(jīng)濟(jì)。

搭建通往復(fù)蘇的橋梁有四個優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)：

第一，繼續(xù)實(shí)施必要的防控措施，為衛(wèi)生體系提供支撐?？紤]到這是一場流行病危機(jī)，擊敗病毒和保衛(wèi)民眾健康是經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的必要條件。所以，要將衛(wèi)生支出優(yōu)先用于檢測和醫(yī)用設(shè)備、為醫(yī)生和護(hù)士支付薪酬、確保醫(yī)院和臨時診所正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

第二，采取大規(guī)模、及時、有針對性的財政和金融部門措施，為受影響的民眾和公司提供保護(hù)。這根據(jù)各國的國情而有所不同，但包括稅收遞延，針對最脆弱群體的工資補(bǔ)貼和現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移支付，擴(kuò)大失業(yè)保險和社會援助范圍，以及臨時調(diào)整信用擔(dān)保和貸款條款。

第三，減輕金融體系壓力并避免風(fēng)險蔓延。金融體系正面臨嚴(yán)重壓力，貨幣刺激和流動性便利能發(fā)揮不可或缺的作用。很多國家已下調(diào)利率，主要央行還啟用了互換額度并建立了新的互換安排來緩解金融市場壓力。為更廣泛的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體改善流動性將提供進(jìn)一步救助。重要的是，這也將提振信心。

第四，即使度過這個防控階段，我們必須做好復(fù)蘇階段的計(jì)劃。隨著穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)的措施得到鞏固且企業(yè)開始正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，我們將需要快速轉(zhuǎn)向刺激需求。協(xié)調(diào)一致的財政刺激將是必要的。通脹仍然較低且保持穩(wěn)定的國家應(yīng)該維持寬松的貨幣政策。資源更多且政策空間更大的國家將需要采取更多行動，其他資源有限的國家將需要更多支持。

作者 | 克里斯塔利娜·格奧爾基耶娃，國際貨幣基金組織總裁

英文原文如下：

Confronting the Crisis: Priorities for the Global Economy

By Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director

April 9, 2020

As prepared for delivery

Introduction: A Crisis Like No Other

I want to begin by wishing my personal best to everyone—for you and your families’ health and safety during these difficult times.

Today we are confronted with a crisis like no other. Covid-19 has disrupted our social and economic order at lightning speed and on a scale that we have not seen in living memory. The virus is causing tragic loss of life, and the lockdown needed to fight it has affected billions of people. What was normal just a few weeks ago—going to school, going to work, being with family and friends—is now a huge risk.

I have no doubt that we will overcome this challenge. Our doctors and nurses are fighting it around the clock, often risking their lives to save the lives of others. Our scientists will come up with solutions to break COVID-19’s grip. Between now and then, we must marshal the determination of all—individuals, governments, businesses, community leaders, international organizations—to act decisively and act together, to protect lives and livelihoods. These are the times for which the IMF was created—we are here to deploy the strength of the global community, so we can help shield the most vulnerable people and revitalize the economy.

The actions we take now will determine the speed and strength of our recovery. That will be the focus of the IMF’s 189 member countries when we meet in our virtual Spring Meetings next week.

It is what I will concentrate on today.

Where We Stand: the Status of the Global Economy

First, let’s look at where we stand. We are still faced with extraordinary uncertainty about the depth and duration of this crisis.

It is already clear, however, that global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020, as you will see in our World Economic Outlook next week. In fact, we anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression.

Just three months ago, we expected positive per capita income growth in over 160 of our member countries in 2020. Today, that number has been turned on its head: we now project that over 170 countries will experience negative per capita income growth this year.

The bleak outlook applies to advanced and developing economies alike. This crisis knows no boundaries. Everybody hurts.

Given the necessary containment measures to slow the spread of the virus, the world economy is taking a substantial hit. This is especially true for retail, hospitality, transport, and tourism. In most countries, the majority of workers are either self-employed or employed by small and medium-sized enterprises. These businesses and workers are especially exposed.

And just as the health crisis hits vulnerable people hardest, the economic crisis is expected to hit vulnerable countries hardest.

Emerging markets and low-income nations—across Africa, Latin America, and much of Asia—are at high risk. With weaker health systems to begin with, many face the dreadful challenge of fighting the virus in densely populated cities and poverty-stricken slums—where social distancing is hardly an option. With fewer resources to begin with, they are dangerously exposed to the ongoing demand and supply shocks, drastic tightening in financial conditions, and some may face an unsustainable debt burden.

They are also exposed to massive external pressure.

In the last two months, portfolio outflows from emerging markets were about $100 billion—more than three times larger than for the same period of the global financial crisis. Commodity exporters are taking a double blow from the collapse in commodity prices. And remittances—the lifeblood of so many poor people—are expected to dwindle.

We estimate the gross external financing needs for emerging market and developing countries to be in the trillions of dollars, and they can cover only a portion of that on their own, leaving residual gaps in the hundreds of billions of dollars. They urgently need help.

The encouraging news is that all governments have sprung into action and, indeed, there has been significant coordination. Our Fiscal Monitor next week will show that countries around the world have taken fiscal actions amounting to about $8 trillion. In addition, there have been massive monetary measures from the G20 and others.

Many of the poorer nations are also taking bold fiscal and monetary action, even as they grapple with this fundamental shock to their systems—and with far less firepower than their rich-country counterparts.

So this is a snapshot of where the global economy stands today.

There is no question that 2020 will be exceptionally difficult. If the pandemic fades in the second half of the year—thus allowing a gradual lifting of containment measures and reopening of the economy—our baseline assumption is for a partial recovery in 2021. But again, I stress there is tremendous uncertainty around the outlook: it could get worse depending on many variable factors, including the duration of the pandemic.

And crucially, everything depends on the policy actions we take now.

What Needs to be Done: a 4-Point Plan

My next point is about building the bridge to recovery. We see four priorities:

First, continue with essential containment measures and support for health systems. Some say there is a trade-off between saving lives and saving livelihoods. I say it is a false dilemma. Given this is a pandemic crisis, defeating the virus and defending people’s health are necessary for economic recovery. So the message is clear: prioritize health spending for testing and medical equipment; pay doctors and nurses; make sure hospitals and makeshift clinics can function. For many countries—particularly in the emerging and developing world—this means carefully reallocating limited public resources. It also means increasing the flow of resources to these countries. That includes the flow of vital goods: we must minimize disruptions to supply chains and, with immediate effect, refrain from export controls on medical supplies and food.

Second, shield affected people and firms with large, timely, targeted fiscal and financial sector measures. This varies according to country circumstances, but it includes tax deferrals, wage subsidies and cash transfers to the most vulnerable; extending unemployment insurance and social assistance; and temporarily adjusting credit guarantees and loan terms. Some of these measures have been taken in the first wave of policy support. Many countries are already working on a second wave. Lifelines for households and businesses are imperative. We need to prevent liquidity pressures from turning into solvency problems and avoid a scarring of the economy that would make the recovery so much more difficult.

Third, reduce stress to the financial system and avoid contagion. Our upcoming Global Financial Stability Report will analyze the range of vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Banks have built up more capital and liquidity over the past decade, and their resilience will be tested in this rapidly changing environment. The financial system is facing significant pressures, and monetary stimulus and liquidity facilities play an indispensable role. Interest rates have been lowered in many countries. Major central banks have activated swap lines and created new ones to reduce financial market stress. Enhancing liquidity for a broader range of emerging economies would provide further relief. Importantly, it would alsolift confidence.

Fourth, even as we move through this containment phase, we must plan for recovery. Again, we must minimize the potential scarring effects of the crisis through policy action now. This requires careful consideration of when to gradually ease restrictions, based on clear evidence that the epidemic is retreating. As measures to stabilize the economy take hold and business starts to normalize, we will need to move swiftly to boost demand. Coordinated fiscal stimulus will be essential. Where inflation remains low and well-anchored, monetary policy should remain accommodative. Those with greater resources and policy space will need to do more; others, with limited resources will need more support.

The IMF: All Hands on Deck

This leads me to the role of the IMF.

We are working 24/7 to support our member countries—with policy advice, technical assistance and financial resources:

— We have $1 trillion in lending capacity and are placing it at the service of our membership.

— We are responding to an unprecedented number of calls for emergency financing—from over 90 countries so far. Our Executive Board has just agreed to double access to our emergency facilities, which will allow us to meet the expected demand of about $100 billion in financing. Lending programs have already been approved at record speed—including for the Kyrgyz Republic, Rwanda, Madagascar, and Togo—with many more to come.

— We are reviewing our tool kit to see how we might better use precautionary credit lines to encourage additional liquidity support, establish a short-term liquidity line, and help meet countries’ financing needs via other options—including the use of SDRs. And where we might be unable to lend because a country’s debt is unsustainable, we will look for solutions that can unlock critical financing.

— We have revamped our Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust to provide immediate debt relief to low-income countries affected by the crisis, thereby creating space for spending on urgent health needs rather than debt repayment. We are now working with donors to increase the CCRT to $1.4 billion to extend the duration of the debt relief.

— And together with the World Bank, we are calling for a standstill of debt service to official bilateral creditors for the world’s poorest countries.

I am proud of the staff of the IMF for stepping up in this crisis. And I look forward to the discussions during the Spring Meetings next week on what more we can do.

Conclusion: A Test of Our Humanity

Let me conclude with a line from Victor Hugo who once said: “Great perils have this beauty, that they bring to light the fraternity of strangers”.

It is this common threat that brings us all together, to harness the greatest strengths of our humanity—solidarity, courage, creativity, and compassion. We don’t know yet how our economies and way of life will change, but we do know we will come out of this crisis more resilient.

Thank you very much.